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  • 2022
  • IU researchers to lead study of rain-on-snow events in Great Lakes’ changing climate

IU researchers to lead study of rain-on-snow events in Great Lakes’ changing climate

By: Gillian Paxton

Tuesday, December 06, 2022

Darren Ficklin

When rain falls on established snowpack, it sets off a chain of events with significant implications for ecosystems, businesses, and communities. Perhaps nowhere is that more evident than in the Great Lakes Basin, which stretches from western Ontario to eastern Pennsylvania and where rain on snow has historically played a role in approximately 1 in 4 extreme snowmelt events.

To better understand the ecological, social, and economic consequences of rain on snow, a team of researchers, led by Indiana University’s Darren Ficklin, is creating a hydrological model to simulate the impacts of the phenomenon under changing environmental conditions. The project is part of the Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC), a partnership between the US Geological Survey and a consortium of eight universities and natural resource organizations dedicated to advancing science in response to the climate crisis. IU’s participation in the Midwest CASC is coordinated by the Environmental Resilience Institute.

As climate change fuels shifting weather patterns, including extreme temperature and precipitation swings, findings provided by the study could help inform strategies to offset anticipated risks to Great Lakes Basin communities.

“Depending on whether precipitation falls as rain or snow, climate change might increase rain-on-snow events or it might decrease the frequency of these events,” said Ficklin, an associate professor in the IU Bloomington College of Arts and Sciences’ Department of Geography. “Either scenario has important implications for people and wildlife. For example, rainier winters with less snowpack may lead to streams that are too warm and kill or drive away cold-water fish. Our model aims to provide insight into how watersheds and rivers might be affected and where to target restoration and mitigation efforts.”

A lighthouse on the shores of Lake Huron. As climate change fuels shifting weather patterns in the Great Lakes Basin, the frequency of rain-on-snow events will have important implications for people and wildlife.

To create the model, researchers will combine climate model data with a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model of the entire Great Lakes Basin and simulate the water cycle through 2100. Modifying SWAT to incorporate rain-on-snow events and their influence on stream temperature should yield new insight into how rain-on-snow events impact water levels, water temperature, and habitats of local wildlife.

“If you put water on a parking lot, it runs off; if you put it on an open field, it absorbs into the ground,” Ficklin said. “Our model uses mathematical equations representing these events based on soil type and landscape characteristics. From that we can also determine the water temperature based on the air temperature and the type of water that’s entering the river.”

Results from the study, including maps and geographic information systems datasets, will be made publicly available and tailored to key stakeholders, such as members of the Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians whose traditional homelands reside on Michigan’s northwestern shores.

“Engaging the natural resource managers in the region is a critical part of this work,” Ficklin said. “We want to provide information that can guide their efforts protecting endangered species, managing fisheries, and supporting water quality.”

About the Environmental Resilience Institute

Indiana University’s Environmental Resilience Institute brings together a broad coalition of government, business, nonprofit, and community leaders to help Indiana and the Midwest better prepare for the challenges of environmental change. By integrating research, education, and community, ERI is working to create a more sustainable, equitable, and prosperous future. Learn more at eri.iu.edu.

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