San Juan Bay Estuary Program Assesses Vulnerability and Targets Low Risk Adaptation Measures

Conducted vulnerability assessment with extensive stakeholder engagement process

• Developed a Climate Projection Scenario using the Climate Ready Estuaries Workbook.
• Identified and engage vulnerable communities through community workshops and in-person discussions.
• Analyzed the likelihood and magnitude of climate threats including extreme weather, sea level rise, erosion, and loss of coastal barriers such as mangroves and coral reefs.

• Being Prepared For Climate Change Workbook guides users to develop a risk-based climate change adaptation plan consisting of a vulnerability assessment and an action plan to reduce risks.

Identified highest likelihood and highest consequence risks for non-point and point source pollution

• Documented top climate risks of concern and identified the timeframe for impact.
• Some climate risks were identified as already occurring, examples of this were point source sewage overflows, and non-point source issues such as increased runoff, septic system failures, and greater erosion and sedimentation from sea level rise.
• Recognized that other climate affects posed longer-term risk including an increase in harmful algal bloom outbreaks and greater infiltration into sewers due to a higher water table.

• Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS), an assessment-oriented program, assesses how potential changes in climate and other global environmental stressors impact water quality, air quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human health in the US.

Used this information to inform management plans and implement resiliency measures

• San Juan Bay Estuary program incorporated climate risks within the recent 2013 draft update to the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan. (Spanish only).
• The program is continuing to promote actions such as using artificial reefs and mangrove plantings to help restore the estuary and increase resilience to future conditions.

• Synthesis of Adaptation Options for Coastal Areas Guidebook provides an introduction to physical impacts of climate change on estuaries and reviews adaptation options available to coastal managers to reduce their systems' vulnerability to climate change impacts.